5) “Bitcoin is Too Volatile”
Bitcoin is promoted as a store of value and medium of exchange, but it has a very volatile price history. This leads, again somewhat understandably, for investors to say it’s not a good store of value or medium of exchange, and thus fails at the one thing that it’s designed to do.
And they’re kind of right. Bitcoin isn’t the asset that you put money into for an emergency fund, or for a down payment on a house that you’re saving up for 6 months from now. When you definitely need a certain amount of currency in a near-term time horizon, Bitcoin is not the asset of choice.
This is because it’s an emerging store of value, roughly 12 years old now, and thus carries with it a significant degree of growth and speculation. Its market capitalization is growing over time, taking some market share from other stores of value, and growing into a meaningful asset class. We’ll see if it continues to do so, or if it levels off somewhere and starts to stagnate.For Bitcoin’s market cap to grow from a $25 million to $250 million to $2.5 billion to $25 billion to today’s value of over $250 billion, it requires volatility, especially upward volatility (which, of course, comes with associated downside volatility).
As it grows larger, its volatility reduces over time. If Bitcoin becomes a $2.5 trillion asset class one day, with more widespread holding, its volatility would likely be lower than it is now.
Therefore, having a nonzero exposure to Bitcoin is basically a bet that Bitcoin’s network effect and use case will continue to grow until it reaches some equilibrium where it has lower volatility and is more stable. For now, it has plenty of volatility, and it needs that volatility if it is to keep growing. Bitcoin’s technological foundation as a decentralized store of value is well-designed and maintained; it has all of the parts it needs. It just needs to grow into what it can be, and we’ll see if it does.
It’s like if someone identifies a new element, and people begin discovering uses for that element, and it experiences a period of rapid growth and high price volatility, until it has been around for sufficient time that it eventually settles in to a normal volatility band.
While Bitcoin remains as volatile as it is, investors can mitigate the risk by having an appropriate position size.
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Group At launch After 1 year After 5 yearsBitcoins are completely virtual coins designed to be self-contained for their value, with no need for banks to move and store the money. Once bitcoins are owned by a person, they behave like physical gold coins. They possess value and trade just as if they were nuggets of gold. Bitcoins can be used to purchase goods and services online with businesses that accept them or can be tucked away in the hope that their value increases over time.'Core developers' of a blockchain are software developers who work on the software that implement that protocol. Developers have processes that are supposed to assure the quality of the software they release, and are generally very interested in maintaining the legitimacy of their software repositories because they want to see people using their software (as opposed to someone else’s).In April 2017, researchers highlighted three major threats to Monero users' privacy. The first relies on leveraging the ring signature size of zero, and ability to see the output amounts. The second, 'Leveraging Output Merging', involves tracking transactions where two outputs belong to the same user, such as when they send funds to themselves ('churning'). Finally, 'Temporal Analysis', shows that predicting the right output in a ring signature could potentially be easier than previously thought. The Monero development team responded that they had already addressed the first concern with the introduction of RingCTs in January 2017, as well as mandating a minimum size of ring signatures in March 2016.
